Dow Jones Today, Futures Narrowly Positive As Earnings Boost UPS; Crocs Poised For Breakout

Stock futures sketched out tight gains early Tuesday, despite weakness across global markets and as mixed earnings news fueled early trade. UPS and NXP Semiconductors were early earnings winners. Tesla dragged lower after its report. Charles Schwab led the IBD 50 list, and chemicals maker Dow topped the Dow Jones today, both on analyst upgrades.


Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures defended fractional gains. The Dow industrials struggled to remain above fair value as 3M (MMM) and Verizon (VZ) dragged in early trade. Futures for the Russell 2000 small cap gauge clung to a 0.2% advance.

At the top of the Nasdaq 100, NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) and fintech heavyweight Fiserv (FISV) both rose about 1.5% on strong quarterly results. Tesla (TSLA) traded down 2.4%, despite topping analyst earnings projections and doubling its deliveries during the first quarter.

United Parcel Service (UPS) rallied more than 6% to the top of the S&P 500, after reporting a powerful performance in its first quarter. The gain pointed UPS stock toward a starting bell breakout past a 178.11 buy point in a 25-week flat base.

Crocs (CROX) rallied almost 10%, after topping analyst Q1 projections and raising second-quarter guidance more than expected. Shares ended Monday just below an 86.50 buy point in a seven-week base.

On the earnings news downside, Eli Lilly (LLY), Cadence Designs (CDNS) and General Electric (GE) all traded sharply lower after reporting results.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) topped the IBD 50 list, up 1.9% after Credit Suisse upgraded shares to outperform, from neutral. The note placed the stock’s price target at 89. Schwab stock is in a buy range on a rebound from support at its 10-week moving average.

Dow Jones Today: Waiting On Microsoft

Specialty chemicals maker Dow (DOW) rallied 1.2%, leading the Dow Jones today, following an upgrade to buy from hold by Argus. The note set the stock’s price target at 69.

Four Dow Jones stocks are due to report today, but only one — 3M — reported this morning. 3M shares slipped 0.8% to the bottom of the Dow, despite outpacing analyst expectations on both the earnings and revenue lines.

Amgen (AMGN), Microsoft (MSFT) and Visa (V) all report after the closing bell.

Economic News: Housing Data, Fed Meeting

The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day meeting gets started today, with a policy announcement and press conference scheduled for Wednesday afternoon.

Data due out early Tuesday includes the Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s House Price Index, both for February, at 9 a.m. ET.  The Conference Board’s April Consumer Confidence survey and the Richmond Federal Reserve’s April manufacturing index are set for release at 10 a.m. ET.

Small Caps: Heidrick, Encore Wire

The Russell 2000 small cap gauge has been working to build some margin above its 50-day moving average, closing to within 3% of its record high from March 16. The index has a year-to-date gain of 16.4%, easily outpacing the overall market.

Among the Russell’s small cap leaders early Tuesday, headhunter Heidrick & Struggles (HSII) vaulted more than 7% higher after its first-quarter report. That positioned shares to open above a 39.18 buy point in what IBD MarketSmith analysis plots as a cup-with-handle base. Premarket moves do not always hold up at the start of regular trade.

Encore Wire (WIRE) rallied nearly 8% after turning in some strong first-quarter numbers. The McKinney, Texas-based maker of electrical wire and cable ended Monday less than 2% below a 73.40 buy point in a six-week flat base.

Vital Signs: Copper, Oil, Bitcoin, Bond Yields

West Texas Intermediate oil climbed 0.8% to above $62 a barrel. WTI has been fighting to hold support at its 50-day moving average since a tumble in mid-March. Prices struck 67.98 on March 8, their highest level Oct. 2018.

Copper prices continued their climb, up 1.3% to above $4.50 a pound. Up 13% since March 30, prices have now pushed past their February high at $4.30 and are just a fraction off their record high at $4.54, set in February 2011.

Stock Market ETF Strategy And How To Invest In The Current Uptrend

Bitcoin prices climbed almost 3% to near $55,000, according to CoinDesk. The cryptocurrency dipped to $47,079 on Sunday, after running up to a new high above $64,800 a week ago, ahead of the Coinbase Global (COIN) IPO. Bitcoin is now down about 7% so far in April, but for the year remains up more than 88%, after starting the year just above $29,000.

Bond yields held firm, with the 10-year yield trading around 1.57%, where it settled on Monday, according to CBOE data. Yields pulled back sharply last week and are sticking close to their 50-day moving average ahead of the Fed meeting. Yields skirted pre-pandemic levels late in March, climbing to almost 1.76% — the highest level since January 2020.

Nasdaq, S&P 500, Dow Jones Today

The S&P 500 eked out another new high Monday, lifting its advance for the year to 11.5%. The Dow Jones today gets started with a year-to-date gain of 11%, trading about 0.8% below its April 16 high at 34,256.

The Nasdaq Composite has gained 8.9% so far this year, but may be signaling a shift of status. The composite on Monday popped back above the quarrelsome 14,000 mark, to notch a new closing high and end less than 0.3% off its record high from Feb. 16.

Nasdaq tracker Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) spent a second session in a buy range above a 338.19 cup base buy point. The leveraged ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) rallied 2% Monday, but finished less than 1% below a 11.96 buy point, also in an eight-week cup base.

For more detailed analysis of the current stock market and its status, study the Big Picture.

A leveraged Nasdaq 100 tracker, the ProShares Ultra QQQ (QLD), was also in a buy range above a cup base entry at 133.06. The buy range runs to 139.71. The ProShares Ultra fund is currently listed in the IBD SwingTrader line up.

Growth stocks outpaced the market on Monday, with the Innovator IBD 50 ETF (FFTY) staging a 2.4% gain. The fund is now working on its fifth straight weekly advance, and is moving up the right side of an 11-week base toward a possible buy point at 50.06.

Find Alan R. Elliott on Twitter @IBD_Aelliott


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