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Almost all major states have announced their ‘State Budget 2021-22’. At all India level, National Statistical Office has estimated 8.0% contraction in real terms and 3.8% contraction in nominal terms for FY21.
States have also put forward their estimates for FY21. To validate the states’ gross state domestic product estimates for FY21, we have created our own estimates based on simulation of last few years states GSDP data based on the share of states in GDP of India.
We have two observations to ponder over.
First, for some states (West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu) we have found that there is significant gap between our estimates and revised estimates provided by these states for FY21.
On the other hand states like Rajasthan, Jharkhand, Odisha and Kerala are representing more realistic picture of their economies.
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